Meeting to be held on 26 March 2026
Appendix A - Risk Matrix
Contact for further information – Esma Alicehajic, Senior Business Continuity and Emergency Planning Officer
Tel: 01772 866 6874
Executive SummaryLancashire Fire and Rescue Service (LFRS) continues to strengthen its approach to organisational risk, aligning policy and practice with International Organisation for Standardization (ISO) 31000:2018 and National Fire Chiefs Council (NFCC) sector guidance. Risk management remains embedded within quarterly Executive Board and Corporate Performance Board discussions, enabling ongoing scrutiny, targeted mitigation, and informed decision-making.
The Corporate Risk Register reflects a stable overall position, with some movement during the reporting period. Notably, the loss of funding risk (2a) has reduced following increased funding certainty and is no longer within the priority reduction zone. As a result, retention and recruitment of on-call staff and the replacement of the existing mobilising system remain the most significant areas of organisational exposure.
The Service continues to monitor internal, national, and geopolitical developments that may impact risk exposure or service delivery, with any material changes incorporated into the Corporate Risk Register through established processes.
Recommendation(s)The Audit Committee is requested to: · Endorse the Service’s current risk management arrangements, and · Note the latest position reflected in the Corporate Risk Matrix and Register.
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The Audit Committee provides independent assurance on the adequacy of the Service’s risk management, internal control environment, and governance arrangements. Risk management remains a core component of organisational resilience, ensuring Lancashire Fire and Rescue Service (LFRS) can anticipate, prevent, or respond effectively to events that may impact operational delivery, strategic objectives, financial sustainability, or reputation.
The Service continues to operate a tiered model for risk identification and escalation, with departmental risk registers informing discussion at Corporate Programme Board and Executive Board. Risks demonstrating wider organisational implications or thresholds beyond local tolerance are escalated to the Corporate Risk Register.
There has been some movement in the risk landscape. Following the three-year funding settlement the funding risk has reduced and leaves two risks that continue to represent the most significant areas of exposure for the organisation: retention and recruitment of on-call staff, and the replacement of the existing mobilising system. These risks remain elevated due to the influence of long-term external factors and wider sector pressures, rather than deterioration in internal conditions. The following changes in the Corporate Risks since the December meeting are set out below:
Increased Risks
|
Risk |
Description |
|
1a – Loss of staff due to industrial action |
A rise in likelihood, driven by a more uncertain national industrial relations environment. External factors such as evolving employment legislation, future pay award pressures, and emerging national narratives around fire service resourcing increase the probability of dispute activity. |
|
11j – Failing pager messages |
An increase in this risk reflects a temporary rise in likelihood during the transition to new mobilisation ways of working, including greater reliance on pagers following local changes. While mitigations are in place (including app-based fallback, North West Fire Control (NWFC) escalation processes, targeted connectivity improvements, and structured testing), early-stage reliability concerns increase the chance of delayed or missed alerts. |
Decreased Risks
|
Risk |
Description |
|
11b – Complete removal of Day Crew Plus (DCP) duty system |
The decrease in this risk reflects a reduction in impact, linked to improved stability and embedding of current duty system arrangements following the Emergency Cover Review (ECR) changes. While the risk remains relevant due to the potential for future challenge, the operational and organisational consequences of removal are now assessed as less severe than previously, given greater clarity on alternative staffing models, increased organisational readiness, and improved understanding of workforce and service delivery implications |
|
12a - Major lack of effective Management of personal data |
The decrease in this risk reflects a reduction in likelihood following strengthening of information governance controls. Improvements including dedicated data protection capacity, clearer ownership, increased training and awareness, and more routine oversight have reduced the probability of a significant data management failure. |
|
2a – Loss of funding |
This risk has reduced from red to amber due to a decrease in likelihood following greater funding certainty provided through the recent three-year Spending Review settlement, completion of the Fair Funding Review and Business Rates Reset. While the outcome confirms real-terms reductions and a defined savings requirement within the agreed Medium Term Financial Strategy (MTFS), the provision of a multi-year settlement significantly reduces short-term volatility and uncertainty. The Service now has clearer financial parameters within which to plan, including an agreed savings profile and balanced MTFS, enabling structured mitigation and forward planning. |
Although not currently reflected in the Corporate Risk Register, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East is being monitored as an emerging risk given its potential to indirectly influence several existing corporate risks. Recent geopolitical developments have already contributed to market volatility and supply‑chain uncertainty, with national commentators noting potential impacts on inflation, global markets and economic stability, alongside increased security concerns, and wider public‑sector pressures. These factors may elevate our exposure in areas such as cost inflation, business continuity, procurement, fuel availability, and broader organisational resilience. We continue to horizon‑scan these developments through established risk management processes, and any material change in risk likelihood or impact will be assessed and incorporated into the Corporate Risk Register in line with LFRS’ risk management procedure.
More broadly, the risk landscape continues to be influenced by national themes including sector culture, professional standards, regulatory scrutiny, and public expectation. While these factors have not resulted in scoring changes this period, they remain relevant contextual considerations when interpreting overall exposure.
Overall, the risk landscape remains consistent and well-controlled, with targeted adjustments reflecting operational change, sector context, and maturing mitigation rather than new or escalating threats.
Progress Against Internal Audit Recommendations
Following the internal audit of the Service’s risk management framework, which provided a reasonable level of assurance, work is ongoing to address the three agreed areas of development: training, risk register consistency, and reporting.
Progress to date has focused on identifying the most effective and proportionate approach to risk management training for risk owners and members, alongside improving consistency in action setting, review, and reporting across risk registers. This includes alignment with emerging national approaches within the fire sector to support standardisation and continued maturity.
Implementation remains on track, with delivery of these improvements forming part of the Service’s wider risk maturity trajectory towards April 2026. As part of the next review cycle, the Service will also look to further align its approach with HM Treasury’s Orange Book: Management of Risk – Principles and Concepts, ensuring continued alignment with recognised best practice.
Failure to maintain an effective risk management system could result in significant operational, financial, legal, and reputational impacts, and undermine the Service’s ability to meet statutory duties and strategic objectives.
There are no identified impacts on sustainability or the environment.
There are no identified implications on equality and diversity.
General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR)
Will the proposal(s) involve the processing of personal data? N
Improved consistency, governance, and reporting will support managers in managing risks proactively, reducing the likelihood of impact on personnel and improving decision-making confidence.
The risk management system supports financial planning, value-for-money assessments, and cost-benefit considerations linked to mitigation and acceptance of risk.
Paper:
Date:
Contact:
Appendix A: Corporate Risk Matrix and Summary Register
Appendix A
Corporate Risk Matrix and Summary Register

|
Risk ID |
Sub Risk ID |
Risk Cause |
Triggers |
Actions |
|
1 |
|
Loss or lack of staff due to… |
A widespread event or situation that leads to a significant loss of workforce ability to undertake normal business |
1) Continue monitoring of the Unions' position on current and future potential disputes 2) Changes in operational response models and monitoring of the Unions' position, including the upcoming Service Review 3) Develop options paper in relation to consideration of the employment of a resilience workforce 4) Continue to review, update and test Business Continuity Plan(s) (BCP) relating to Industrial Action (IA) in line with testing schedule or upon increased likelihood 5) Continue reviewing and updating costing of IA operations in line with current economic situation 6) Exercise and test resilience model 7) Consider financial implication of resilience model aligned to MTFS 8) Complete and follow up any recommendations that come from the National Resilience (NR) IA survey
|
|
|
1a |
Industrial Action |
A local or national dispute with a major or multiple unions leading to staff undertaking partial performance or withdrawal of labour |
1) Continue monitoring of the Unions' position on current and future potential disputes 2) Changes in operational response models and monitoring of the Unions' position, including the upcoming Service Review 3) Develop options paper in relation to consideration of the employment of a resilience workforce 4) Continue to review, update and test BCPs relating to IA in line with testing schedule or upon increased likelihood 5) Continue reviewing and updating costing of IA operations in line with current economic situation 6) Exercise and test resilience model 7) Consider financial implication of resilience model aligned to MTFS 8) Complete and follow up any recommendations that come from the NR IA survey
|
|
|
1b |
Inability to recruit or retain key staff |
Decline in
available workforce due to a number of factors |
1) Continue to monitor through Workforce Planning arrangements 2) Raise any shortfalls through Group Managers Meeting or Executive Board as applicable 3) Evaluate the success of recruitment sources 4) Financial pressures to be considered as part of workforce planning |
|
|
1c |
Inability to provide sufficient staff in leadership roles |
a. The ECR, delivered in 2024, resulted in an increase in the number of supervisory roles available b. The historical retirement profile has resulted in a large number of promotions over the years resulting in a reduced pool of staff available for promotion. |
1) The Service continues to offer leadership development to supervisory and middle managers 2) Advertise leadership vacancies externally
|
|
|
1d |
Pandemic/ill-health epidemic |
An ill-health epidemic or pandemic reducing ability of staff to attend or access to workplace, either due to their own illness, to prevent or reduce transmission and to care for dependants |
1) Continuation of updating relevant plans and Health and Safety (H&S) information in line with newest developments and research 2) Explore the possibility of developing an early warning trigger mechanism from HR to inform Response and Emergency Planning (REP) action/monitoring on potential increases sickness and absences, by end of quarter 4 3) Combine learnings from COVID, Pegasus, and LFRS BC Senior Management Team (SMT) exercise, tracked through LFRS Assurance Management System (AMS), by end of quarter 4
|
|
2 |
|
Financial Pressures |
Insufficient funding or unbudgeted cost pressures that financial sustainability and ability to maintain critical functions |
|
|
|
2a |
Loss of funding |
a. Government
reduction of grant monies affecting income |
1) Continue
lobbying Government through local Members and Member(s) of
Parliament (MP) |
|
|
2b |
Overspending and future financial pressures on MTFS due to increase in costs of goods and services and pay |
a. Unexpected
event that leads to rise in costs for goods and services and pay
e.g. Fuel costs due to Ukraine war, Global recession |
1) Regular monitoring and updating MTFS assumptions |
|
|
2c |
Future financial pressures on MTFS due to changes in legislation |
a. Changes in
building regulations resulting in higher costs than in our MTFS
assumptions i.e. BREEM regulations |
1) Continue to
monitor potential impact, incorporating in our draft MTFS |
|
|
2d |
Emerging risk associated with grey book pensions and overspending due to increase in costs and administrations associated with changes to pensions |
a. Unexpected changes to the pension schemes due to court rulings. |
|
|
3 |
|
Loss of Utilities |
An event or situation, malicious or non-malicious, that causes a partial or total loss of a utilities services |
|
|
|
3a |
Telecommunications |
Severe weather, Space weather, failure of equipment due to fault or malicious attack on national or local telecoms infrastructure at LFRS and/or North West Fire Control (NWFC). This could also be due to loss or withdrawal of contracts from suppliers. |
1)
Participating in NWFC Business Continuity (BC) group to address the
communication backups |
|
|
3b (i) |
Power outage - Generally |
Severe weather,
space weather, failure of equipment due to fault or malicious
attack on national or local power infrastructure or supply
chains. |
1) Drafting of
a power outage Tactical BCP informed by outcome of Business
Continuity Management Group (BCMG) workshops - by Quarter 1
(Q1)/26-27 |
|
|
3b (ii) |
Power outage - Service Headquarters (SHQ) |
Severe weather,
space weather, failure of equipment due to fault or malicious
attack on national or local power infrastructure or supply
chains. |
1) ICT to
review condition and provide report of Uninterruptible Power Supply
(UPS) to main server room- Q1- 26/27 |
|
|
3b (iii) |
Power outage - Leadership & Development Centre (LDC) |
Severe weather,
space weather, failure of equipment due to fault or malicious
attack on national or local power infrastructure or supply
chains. |
1) Isolation of
Photovoltaic (PV) panels on H54 - requires further investigation to
resolve back feed to the generator issues |
|
|
3c |
Water |
Large scale failure of water company equipment due to fault or malicious attack on national or local processing and pumping infrastructure or supply chains, or failure of private company. |
1) Conduct a
gap analysis on water outage on a county-wide scale, including
bottled drinking water, firefighting water, and hygiene
requirements |
|
|
3d |
Fuel |
Failure of equipment due to fault, incident, industrial action, or malicious attack on national or local infrastructure or supply chains. Geopolitical issues affecting access to fuel from international sources. Public behaviour (panic buying as a result of any of above scenarios) |
1) Maintain a
minimum level of fuel (75%) in bulk storage |
|
4 |
|
Loss of Information and Communications Technology (ICT) |
Partial or total loss of physical or electronic/virtual ICT systems due to a fault, accidental damage, or malicious attack. |
|
|
|
4a |
Cyber Security |
Partial or total loss of electronic/virtual ICT systems due to a malicious attack. |
1) A Cyber
Security Strategy approved by Exec board that includes things like
additional managed services to assist with monitoring the
environment, Investment in next generation perimeter defences such
as next generation Firewalls and changed to working practice, such
as enforcing more secure password and multi factor
authentication |
|
|
4b |
Failure of key ICT systems |
Partial or total loss of physical or electronic/virtual ICT systems due to a fault, accidental damage, or malicious attack |
1) Identify
pathway to Azure migrate for data, storage &
infrastructure |
|
5 |
|
Death or Serious injury of… |
An incident that causes the death or serious injury of a person either in or interacting with the Service |
|
|
|
5a |
A member of staff or contractor during work activities |
An incident in the workplace related to general duties e.g. a member of staff involved in Road Traffic Collision (RTC) whilst undertaking duties, slips trips and falls |
1) In March 2024, the Health and Safety and Environmental Management Systems underwent an independent audit as part of our ISO 45001 and ISO 14001 certification process. No non-conformances were identified with one opportunity for improvement suggested by the auditor |
|
|
5b |
A member of staff during operational activities |
An incident enroute to, on an incident ground or in operational training scenario e.g. falling debris |
1) In March 2024, the Health and Safety and Environmental Management Systems underwent an independent audit as part of our ISO 45001 and ISO 14001 certification process. No non-conformances were identified with one opportunity for improvement suggested by the auditor |
|
|
5c |
A member of the public due to Service activities |
An incident or
situation that leads to the death or serious injury of a member of
the public. During operational response, training activities or any
other public interaction, or incident on Service premises |
1) In March 2024, the Health and Safety and Environmental Management Systems underwent an independent audit as part of our ISO 45001 and ISO 14001 certification process. No non-conformances were identified with one opportunity for improvement suggested by the auditor |
|
|
5d |
Death of member of staff, visitor, or contractor due to on service premises |
An incident or situation on service premises or estate that leads to death or serious injury. Failure to provide appropriate risk assessment, first aid provision/ training, damaged or faulty equipment or buildings/structures |
1) In March 2024, the Health and Safety and Environmental Management Systems underwent an independent audit as part of our ISO 45001 and ISO 14001 certification process. No non-conformances were identified with one opportunity for improvement suggested by the auditor |
|
|
5e |
Failure to identify and implement learning from past events. |
Failure to properly investigate and implement actions following recommendations, from a near miss, death, or serious injury to mitigate risk for the future |
1) In March 2024, the Health and Safety and Environmental Management Systems underwent an independent audit as part of our ISO 45001 and ISO 14001 certification process. No non-conformances were identified with one opportunity for improvement suggested by the auditor |
|
6 |
|
Change in national legislation requiring additional workloads to assess implement and embed. |
Change in national legislation requiring additional workloads, this might be due to a significant event requiring learning, new government initiatives or change in political landscape |
|
|
|
6a |
Changes to Emergency Response Driver Training |
Change in Fire Standard for Emergency Response Driver Training requiring additional workloads in training |
1) The increase
in course duration for Emergency Response Driver Training is likely
to come in to force once section 19 of the road safety act changes.
However, the duration for the new legislation is still unknown.
therefore, be partially offset by the trainer to student ratio
being changed |
|
8 |
|
Loss of Service Premises |
An event or situation, malicious or non-malicious, that causes a partial or total loss of a fire service asset |
|
|
|
8b |
Control room |
Severe weather, physical or technical attack or failure, general damage to building, denial of access (e.g. Protests/ IA), failure of contracts with third party supplier (e.g. joint/co-located premises) |
1) Involvement
in NWFC governance structures to assure operations and BC
arrangements |
|
9 |
|
Failure to maximise opportunities |
An event or situation that could provide an opportunity to improve the Service, which if not utilised could have a negative impact on the Service's progress |
|
|
|
9a |
Technological advances |
Failure to maximise the opportunities that technological advances present due to a lack of capacity within the ICT & Digital Technology (DT) department, and an inability of staff to keep pace with new developments that are implemented |
1) Initiate and
mature Community Developer concept |
|
10 |
|
Failure to manage incidents or staff conduct effectively, including inadequate handling of complaints or disciplinary processes, leading to loss of public confidence or reputational damage. |
An incident or situation that results in loss of public or staff confidence due to employee conduct (in the workplace, personal life, or on social media), non-compliance with Service policies, the Core Code of Ethics, or Equality, Diversity and Inclusion (EDI) principles; compounded by negative media coverage or the Service's mismanagement of the response. |
|
|
|
10a |
Failure to provide appropriate communications on events, situations or incidents that could lead to a loss of public confidence in LFRS |
An event or situation relating to, loss of public or staff confidence due to Employee conduct at work, in personal life and on social media, failure to adhere to service policy/core code of ethics/ EDI and related negative press, or Sector events. |
1) Social media
sessions to be delivered jointly with HR to address corporate and
personal use |
|
|
10b |
Failure to implement appropriate people processes in response to staff misconduct or complaints. |
Allegations or evidence of staff misconduct (e.g., bullying, harassment, discrimination). Failure to act in line with Service Values, Core Code of Ethics, Staff Code of Conduct, or service policy. Delays or inconsistencies in investigations or decision making. Lack of transparency or perceived fairness in internal procedures |
1) Continue
delivering training for all line managers on investigative best
practices |
|
11 |
|
Operational |
An event or situation that could impact on LFRS ability to respond effectively and efficiently. |
|
|
|
11a |
Rapid external fire spread in high rise premises |
An event or situation relating to lack of prevention, protection and operational response leading to a major incident. |
1) Ongoing
built environment awareness training for operation and community
safety staff |
|
|
11b |
Complete removal of Day Crewing Plus (DCP) |
A challenge from a Union to current local agreement. |
1) Ongoing
engagement with staff and Trade Unions |
|
|
11c |
Lack of required skills of operational staff |
A situation where operational staff do not possess the required skill to operate safely at an incident |
1) Monitor
effectiveness of Operational Assurance Performance Report in
disseminating information |
|
|
11f |
Retention, development, and recruitment of On Call staff |
The failure to recruit and retain on-call staff caused by lack of on-call recruiting strategies, not being perceived as a desirable employer, not being competitive in pay rates, not providing enough flexibility to on-call staff with work arrangements. |
1) Continuous
programme of improvement to identify and make proposals across On
Call (OC) aimed at improving recruitment, development and
retention |
|
|
11g |
Replacement of the existing mobilising system as current solution comes to end of life |
The failure to recruit and retain on-call staff caused by lack of on-call recruiting strategies, not being perceived as a desirable employer, not being competitive in pay rates, not providing enough flexibility to on-call staff with work arrangements. |
1) Establishing
the feasibility and cost of contract extension from current
mobilising system supplier, pending legal advice and extension
options which are being developed. By Q1 26/27 assurance will be
gained on cost and timescales |
|
|
11i |
Unauthorised access, criminal damage or theft from stations, vehicles, or operational equipment, including during periods when staff may be present on site. |
A spate of break‑ins nationally targeting fire stations or vehicles, including when crew are present or nearby. |
1) Review and
update station security risk assessments for all premises |
|
|
11j |
Failing Pager messages |
The failure of the Critico solution to notify on-call fire fighters of an incident. |
1) Critico to
rectify coverage issues |
|
12 |
|
General |
An event or situation that could impact on LFRS |
|
|
|
12a |
Major lack of effective Management of personal data |
A situation or event caused by the lack of effective information management in LFRS |
1) Procedure for ensuring appropriate retention of HR records. |